The Overall Effects of this Sub - Prime Mortgage Crisison All Aspects of the Financial Markets and theMacroeconomic in the US and Taiwan

• Main Authors: Lee, Hsiu-Hsia, 李秀霞
• Other Authors: Shih, Neng-Jen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/12898898184817609677

碩士 === 大葉大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班 === 98 === In the new era of globalization, there exist inseparable relations between nations and between regions, and the US subprime mortgage crisis has evolved into a financial tsunami affecting the whole world. The study will focus on the discussions of the changes in the economic and financial activities in the US and Taiwan over a certain period resulting from the subprime mortgage crisis. In addition to the selected representative economic variables in the US and our country, the financial variables will be taken as a standard to measure the financial fluctuation based on the statistical data on the loans to small and medium enterprises from the banks of the country. An analysis will be made on the data from Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2008. This article will make discussions based on the two-stage least square method, namely, it will first form a hypothesis on the changes in all independent variables during a certain future period based on simultaneous equations and then evaluate the predictive value of all dependent variables by conducting a simulation experiment in the method of repeated procedures. During the study of the data and through analysis of the expected results, it is found that (1)the stock index of Taiwanese market has a positive effect on the loans of the banking, customs value of exports and NASDAQ trend but has a negative effect on the unemployment rate in US and Taiwan; (2)the loans of the banking has a positive effect on the customs value of exports and new privately owned housing units started but has a negative effect on the unemployment rate in Taiwan and the manufacturing indexes in US; (3)the unemployment rate in Taiwan has a positive effect on the unemployment rate in US and NASDAQ trend but has a negative effect on the stock v index of Taiwanese market, customs value of exports and the manufacturing indexes in US; (4)the customs value of exports has a positive effect on the loans of the banking and the unemployment rate in US but has a negative effect on the unemployment rate in Taiwan, UCPI in US and the new privately owned housing units started.