| Summary: | 碩士 === 大葉大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班 === 98 === In the new era of globalization, there exist inseparable relations between nations
and between regions, and the US subprime mortgage crisis has evolved into a financial
tsunami affecting the whole world.
The study will focus on the discussions of the changes in the economic and
financial activities in the US and Taiwan over a certain period resulting from the
subprime mortgage crisis. In addition to the selected representative economic variables
in the US and our country, the financial variables will be taken as a standard to
measure the financial fluctuation based on the statistical data on the loans to small and
medium enterprises from the banks of the country. An analysis will be made on the
data from Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2008. This article will make discussions based on the
two-stage least square method, namely, it will first form a hypothesis on the changes in
all independent variables during a certain future period based on simultaneous
equations and then evaluate the predictive value of all dependent variables by
conducting a simulation experiment in the method of repeated procedures.
During the study of the data and through analysis of the expected results, it is
found that (1)the stock index of Taiwanese market has a positive effect on the loans of
the banking, customs value of exports and NASDAQ trend but has a negative effect on
the unemployment rate in US and Taiwan; (2)the loans of the banking has a positive
effect on the customs value of exports and new privately owned housing units started
but has a negative effect on the unemployment rate in Taiwan and the manufacturing
indexes in US; (3)the unemployment rate in Taiwan has a positive effect on the
unemployment rate in US and NASDAQ trend but has a negative effect on the stock
v
index of Taiwanese market, customs value of exports and the manufacturing indexes in
US; (4)the customs value of exports has a positive effect on the loans of the banking
and the unemployment rate in US but has a negative effect on the unemployment rate
in Taiwan, UCPI in US and the new privately owned housing units started.
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