A Study of Risk Management in Aviation Safety during Clear Air Turbulence (CAT)

• Main Authors: Pei-Te Wu, 吳培德
• Other Authors: Hoyng-Yu Yang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/25300267116752812661

碩士 === 中華科技大學 === 土木防災工程研究所在職專班 === 98 === Generally speaking, the probability of occurrence in aviation accident is quite low; yet, severe losses of human lives and properties are resulted whenever a crash takes place. Statistics have shown that about 13% of air disasters were as a result of the weather condition. However, clear air turbulence in the atmosphere thus far has not been able to be detected by the weather radar on plane. Once encountered by this condition, passengers are either just being frightened if fortunate or being physically hurt if not fortunate. Under this unpredictable circumstance, it is no doubt a risk. Therefore, this issue must be taken seriously. This research is based on the concept of how to reduce risks. The researcher consulted the method of risk management, published by the Research, Development, and Evaluation Commission, Executive Yuan (RDEC), which combined the methods of flight safety assessment listed by the Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA), for building the Risk Stimulation Model. In addition, the researcher also consulted foreign statistical data and relevant references internationally for analyzing the occurrence rate of factors that may cause clear air turbulence, as well as assessing the damage scale in the event of accidents. This research uses case study to evaluate the risk factors in aviation. The researcher applies the risk management on the estimation and control of the risk in clear air turbulence, and uses the risk policy matrix to decide whether or not to adapt the risk control policy with proper responses. According to the result of risk assessments, the higher the number of the occurrence rate in the clear air turbulence is, the higher of the risk figure is. The research takes two case studies of the national aircraft accidents suffered by clear air turbulence from 1999 to 2008. After assessments, it was determined that these two cases are unacceptable and that improvements shall be carried out immediately. Data were analyzed according to the risk strategies of self-response, avoidance, dispersion, and transference. If measures are taken to reduce risk, such as changing flight plans, working on air responding, strengthening crew training, and asking passengers to fasten their seat belts at all times, it is expected that the anticipated risk will be reduced to the acceptable range. Moreover, the study recommends that all related information should be continuously gathered for the results to be more comprehensive. It is suggested that methods used in this study may be applied on wind-shear or wake turbulence studies in the near future, thereby reducing the risk of disaster events and increasing flight safety.