| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 中國大陸研究所碩士班 === 97 === In the course of China''s fast economic development in recent years, cause the electric supply and demand question attracting people''s attention more and more, the states of the mix and implementation to every province, regional electricity, all the key to influencing future economy could be kept growing up very importanting, and government and each industry how face the subject, must form a complete set to present situation because policy that answers.
This text carries on the analysis of quantization in terms of electricity consumption, it is the development about the overall electricity in China at first, then probe into 30 provinces in 1999 and 2006 (except Tibet) The state that the electricity consumes, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong is the most developed province of the economy, it is that the electric demand has been the greatest during these years at the same time;
From the point of view of per capita electric volume of consumption, the electricity of everybody in Shanghai is consumed for being highest, but Ningxia, Qinghai because Qinghai-Tibet railway ( Use the electric energy) Open, and tourist''s a large amount of increase, make the per capita electric volume of consumption promote by a wide margin. And the situation of six major region electric power development over these eight years, the electricity consumption of East China which regards long triangular economic zone as representatives is grown into fastest; Can find out the efficiency that every province electric energy use is promoted to some extent these eight years finally.
This text use Panel Data model is it analyse, dawdle etc. And face and make the discussion to China between GDP, population, economic structure, cable, unit GDP electricity consumption, to go on, is it happen through Hausman regular result model for suitable for this materials structure most, result get GDP high electric heavy demand to examine, the higher the proportion of industry is, the more obvious the consumption of the electricity is, and the worse electric energy service efficiency is, the higher the power consumption is, but after the electric volume of consumption fetches logarithm, the service trade will have apparent influence, per capita electric volume of consumption high GDP their high in addition, and industrialized degree high too.
The construction of the electricity can not catch up with the speed of economic development, but should still face the insufficient question of electric energy under the pressure of economic development, ration the power supply, limited effect of mixing etc. Macro adjustments and controls do at present, and eleven five energy-conservation, industry upgrading, conversion of industrial structure that planning recommend, can find out the achievement slowly.
Proposed studying and proposing in the relevant futures finally:
(1)Perfect the choice of the variable and quantization method
(2)Adopt many kinds of function form to go on more easy to analyse to the model.
Example: 1. The vectorial error revises models
2. Combine models altogether
3. Var model
(3)Expand the sample data in the positive research
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