| Summary: | 碩士 === 世新大學 === 經濟學研究所(含碩專班) === 97 === Abstract
The study investigates the synchronization of business cycle among Taiwan and his major trade partners, namely Japan, United States, and China. The cyclical indicators such as leading indicators, coincident indicator, and economic growth rate are used in the study. Three time series analysis tools, i.e., unit root test, vector auto-regression, and Granger causality test are utilized.
The study finds that: all coincident indicators, leading indicators and economic growth rates are committed unit root problem. Therefore the first differences of variables are used in the following study.
The VAR analysis finds that there are synchronization of business cycle among countries studied more or less. US economy plays the dominant role, while Taiwan economy also affects other economies. Chinese leading indicator affect US coincident indicator and is also affected by Taiwanese coincident indicator. Chinese coincident indicator reciprocates with his leading indicator, and also affect Japanese coincident indicator. Meanwhile, Japanese indicators do not affect other countries indicators significantly. Therefore economies affect Taiwan are US, China, and Japan in order.
The investigation of the Granger Causality between cyclical indicators and economic growth in each country finds that leading and coincident indicator exit causal relationship with economic growth rate in Taiwan, United States, and Japan. However, such causalities are not found in China.
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