| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 生物環境系統工程學研究所 === 97 === Due to the using of fossil fuel for the past two centuries, it has made greenhouse gas over production and oil depletion. This situation forces people to look for clean and pollution-free renewable energy to replace fossil fuel gradually. Of all kinds of renewable energy, wind power has advantages like mature technology and low environmental impact. Thus, the development of wind energy has rapidly and steadily progressed then other renewable energy for the last decade. However, wind power availability might be affected by climate changes induced by greenhouse gas emissions. To evaluate the trends of wind power production by using GCMs (general circulation models) is necessary for wind energy development.
This research presents approaches to develop empirically downscaled estimates of near-surface wind speed and energy density in Taiwan. These approaches are based on downscaling the Weibull and Rayleigh of wind speed probability distributions and cumulative distribution of time-series parameters. In addition, due to the climate features of Asia monsoon, the differences between strong and weak wind periods in Taiwan are also discussed.
The results show that cumulative distribution of time-series is better than other two approaches for the cases of low wind speeds, but the Weibull distribution is the best for the cases of high wind speed. Of the three GCMs, errors estimated by using ECHAM5 model have the lowest values. The error calculated by using the strong wind period data is less
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than the whole year data. Moreover, the error calculated by using the weak wind period data is worse. The results also show that the future situation may be slightly lower than the present.
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