| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 97 === The purpose of this study is to construct Taiwan''s macroeconometric model and to use the model analyzing the effects of the GDP of China, the exchange rate, the monetary policy on macroeconomy. According to the economic situation in Taiwan, this study assumes three different scenarios to analyze them separately.
(1) Growth of GDP in China: According to the statistics of Bureau of Foreign Trade, the export to China accounts for 30% of the total exprt of Taiwan. This phenomenon implies that the high dependence on China of the international trade of Tawian. From the end of 2008, the global economic situation was impacted by the financial tsunami and the internal trade slumped. Hence, the economic growth rate of China will affect the macroeconmy of Taiwan.
(2) Exchange rate: The exchange rate of the NT dollar has been moving up and down between 33 and 35 NT dollars since 2009. Because Taiwan belongs to a small open economic system, the variability of the exchange rate would result in an enormous effect. In this thesis, we analyze and research the short-term and long-term impacts by using the model to simulatethe trend.
(3) Monetary policy: We analyze the economy under the scenario of the central bank adjusting the discount rate gradually. As the discount rate increases, it could result in a negative impact on the economy but lower the price effectively. In contrast, lowering the rate could improve the economy but impose stress on the price.
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