Estimation of Spatial Adaptation Strategy for Sea Level Rise by Introducing Urban Simulation Model

• Main Authors: Jeng-Sin Chen, 陳正昕
• Other Authors: 孫志鴻
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/25118870518796454145

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 地理環境資源學研究所 === 97 === Over the past decade, global changing has aroused increasing interests around the world. Among various kinds of issues, accelerated sea level may post most critical threat to low-lying area. As an island country, people in Taiwan inevitably need to face the rising sea level and deal with the related impact. Up to now, there are two different measures to reduce the damage induced by global change: mitigation and adaptation. According to many researches, managed realignment, which could create a buffer zone and provide ecological and recreational benefits, has been proven as an effective adaptation. In Taiwan, however, the urban development policy reflects no awareness of the high cost and the potential risk of holding the line. This research aims at creating a suitable retreat area in Taipei metropolis and examining how it affects the population distribution inside the city by introducing urban simulation model. The result shows that, after executing retreat policy for 30 years, the amount of population will have substantial growth in the neighbor districts with higher development. Despite the abundant dwellings, the area ranges in height from 6 to 100m could not attract more residents. Besides, under the most critical scenario (sea level rise 25 m), with large area covered by water, the result shows that households tend to relocate in the neighborhood of Taipei City.