| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 國際財務金融碩士在職專班 === 97 === Accounting is the information for recording companies’ operation activities. And financial report could be taken as a tool to understand those operations. It would be an important issue concerned by investors and creditors that could it been available to predict companies’ future operation performance by calculating and evaluating related financial ratios based on accounting record issued by companies. However, financial reporting is made based on general acceptable accounting principle which is also accrued base and may not give full information relating to cash flow of companies. Hence, we consider other aspect of financial information influence and try to build prediction model to more understand reimbursement ability of companies, to try to insure investors’ and creditors’ interest and right from financial crisis companies.
The objects of this study are Taiwan listed companies, having financial crises in 2008. And to select comparisons based on their similarities of homogeneity and scale size. Then, to calculate traditional financial ratios, cash flow ratios, related performance growing ratios and square value of front ratios according to financial statements of 5 years end before financial crises. Using Stepwise Discriminate analysis to determine sequence of influence degree of each variable and finally build up the financial crisis prediction model by discriminate analysis.
This research indicates that some cash flow variables and square values are important factors of prediction including short-term and long-term. And increase degree of accurate of the prediction. It shows that square values of financial ratios significantly improving the prediction ability.
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