The study of the Risk Management to the Debris Disaster

• Main Authors: KAO TS CHUN, 高子珺
• Other Authors: 蔡元芳
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/36021890738443978085

碩士 === 國立臺北教育大學 === 社會科教育學系碩士班 === 97 === Over the past twenty years there has been a significant philosophical change in disaster management which has been characterized by a recognition of the value of risk management techniques in disaster risk management leading to the development of strategies to mitigate the effects of natural hazards on humane society. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the Value at Risk to the debris flow disaster in Sansia Township, Taipei County, TAIWAN. The risk of debris flow disaster is expressed by a compound function of natural hazard and the Vulnerability. It is defined as follows: Value at Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Any effective strategy to get the Value at Risk must begin with an identification of the Hazards. According to disaster history data, this study selected 22 different rivers in Sansia. The 22 different rivers are categorized into two groups beforehand. This research also got 10 physiographic variables from each river. Discriminant Analysis is used to produces a linear equation that can be used to explain which variables best discriminates between two groups, and consequently, builds a predictive model that can be used for future classification. Another issue of risk management is the choice of the distribution of loss data. The objective of the vulnerability assessment in this study is to get the landuse data. This study concluded as follows:(1)the output of debris flow disaster risk map;(2) The debris flow disaster Management Plan was developed.