| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 金融營運所 === 97 === The thesis aims to prove speculative stocks are able to be identified according to the companies’ financial statements. The object of the study is public electronics companies in Taiwan because electronics industry has the largest number of public companies. Financial statements from January 2004 to November 2008 allow the author to choose 13 companies in financial crisis, and each company is paired up with two other companies with similar asset sizes or in its industry, respectively. Then, 20 financial ratios are picked from its previous financial statements when financial crisis approaches.
With those ratios, t-test is used as the analysis tool, and its factors include financial structures, debt repayment capacity, management capability, earning power, and cash flow. Comparison of t-test results “not in” and “in” financial crisis causes examines the assumption, a company is in financial crisis if its financial ratios differ from and its two paired companies’ greatly. The assumption is proved and shows that, whether the test is conducted in financial crisis causes or not, 9 financial ratios of a suffered company have huge differences from its paired companies’, including high liability ratio, poor short-term liquidity, low turnover ratios, and poor earning power. Those ratios work as the indicators of an upcoming financial crisis hitting a company. Among the factors, earning power and management capability are the two best indicators of a company’s potential financial crisis.
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