The Empirical Study and Comparison of Elder''s Mortality Model in Taiwan, America and Japan

• Main Authors: Cheng-Chi Wu, 吳承啟
• Other Authors: Ching- Hao Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/38029311295438323334

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 風險管理與保險所 === 97 === The mortality rate is an important factor for insurance companies while calculate the policy fee. Thus, finding a model to modify the of Mortality rates is a big and important issue that the global actuaries concern about. As the national income is increasing and the mortality rate is decreasing due to the medical technology improvement and economic development, the senior population is getting higher and higher,this research is an extension of the Log-link model and Gompertz model which propose the regression function for force of mortality. The data is based on the mortality of population in Taiwan, Japan and America and the period is from 1970 to 2001. According to the real rates and estimated rates of mortality, we calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error ( MAPE), which helps us to evaluate the Mortality rate in Taiwan, Japan and America, then make some comparisons with the function. At the end,this research also analyzes the three national population mortality rate tendencies, and predicts the mortality rates of year 2008 to 2012 for three countries.