| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄海洋科技大學 === 航運管理研究所 === 97 === This research is with the view of prosperous circulation, observed the influence factor’s seasonality, periodicity and relative of bulk Carrier Shipping industry , it has a four major ships type to bulk Carrier Shipping industry ( Capesize, Panamax , Handymax, handysize) . The target of ships type selected Capesize to study. These risks substantially affect the interplay between revenue and cost which emanate from fluctuations in average spot earnings, bunker price, interest rate, foreign exchange rate, newbuild ship price and second hand ship price. It is important key that these factor’s relative of cycle will be changed the economic system of bulk Carrier Shipping industry.
This paper of structure is three parts about the seasonality, periodicity and relative. First, we adapt the X11 seasonal analysis to decompose factors of Trend and Cyclical, Seasonal Variation, Irregular Variation. In this part, we discovered the average spot earnings to be seasonality. Second, Hodrick-Prescott filter and Band-Pass filter reveal that four cycles in the researched period, and the bulk Carrier Shipping industry average cycle is 52.7 months / cycle (about 4.4 years). Finally, we use Granger Causality test and Cross-correlation function to catch at the cause and result about the average spot earnings between five factors. We has found the average spot earnings with new-build ship price and second hand ship price that exists in causality. About interest rate and foreign exchange rate, they have no relationship with average spot earnings. However, bunker price has negative correlation with average spot earnings. It indicates that bunker price rises and average spot earnings will be decreased.
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