The effect of oil price on consumer spending: evidence from Taiwan

• Main Authors: Jui-hsing Lo, 羅瑞興
• Other Authors: Pao-yuan Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/17162726789936963928

碩士 === 南華大學 === 管理經濟學系經濟學碩士班 === 97 === 　　The amount of spending affects the willingness of production by manufacturers and determines the economic growth of a country. In the past years, domestic private consumption accounts for more than 50% of the GDP. Therefore, spending amount significantly affects our domestic output. What factors affect our private consumption and the significance of the effect is an interesting topic to be explored. Impacts on private consumption in Taiwan in the past years include double cards crisis (credit cards and cash cards) and increasing oil price. Over 90% of domestic oil depends on import. Record high oil price, in addition to leading to higher production cost all over the world, also greatly impacts our private consumption. 　 　　Other than impacts of world oil price on private consumption, this paper also further analyzes the nonlinear effect of oil price changes on private consumption. From the logistic smooth transition error correction model (LSTECM) adopted in this paper, when the fluctuation of world oil price does not exceed 0.0062, it causes negative influence; as it exceeds 0.0062, it brings positive influence. The result indicates that under these two different systems, world oil price affects private consumption differently.