| Summary: | 碩士 === 國防大學國防管理學院 === 國防財務資源研究所 === 97 === For 20 years (from 1989 to 2009 A.D), there are the double-digit growth rate of defense spending of P.R.C., so that her military capability continued to expand and threaten the peace in the Taiwan Strait. However, R.O.C. defense budget is declined year by year, because of her fiscal position and social welfare policy. Although R.O.C. defense budget in recent years that should be up to the gross domestic product (GDP) of 3%, but is this 3% enough?
This study investigated the fact since 1996 "Taiwan Strait missile crisis", it showed that the budget scale is not considered the threaten factor of P.R.C. This study identifies her defense environment using the open system theory. We build both the qualitative and quantitative models basing the theory by System Dynamics, to simulate the future scales of Taiwan defense budget under the change of environmental factors, the gaps between supply and demand of the budgets are getting serious. Under this situation, this study proposes that the future national strategy should be a multiple-capability strategy against P.R.C., not only considered the military capability.
|
|---|
