Using Technology Life Cycle to Analysis the Developing Trend of Thin-Film Photovoltaic Industry

• Main Authors: Chao-Ming Chu, 朱昭銘
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/34325975436021132503

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 企業管理學系碩士在職專班 === 97 === Over the passed decade, Taiwan’s high technology industries such as semiconductor and TFT-LCD had accumulated many experience and fundamentals. Due to recent years, green energy and energy-saving industry are boosted; many enterprises devote in Photovoltaic, solar and LED manufacturing. Especially thin film solar production has similar process with TFT-LCD, thus related skilled person and capital are attracted. This study leverages “US Patent and Trademark Office” database to query related key index to develop “S curve” by using “Technology Life Cycle” theory in order to estimate the mature time of each stage of the life cycle. Especially thin film solar technology life cycle is estimated with “logistic growth model” and software “Loglet Lab 2” is utilized to analysis the life cycle of thin film photovoltaic industry. The major conclusions of this study are as follows. For thin film solar technology, the life cycle is in technical maturity stage in 2009. The leading country patent quantities are US and Japan. Due to the technical life cycle is in maturity stage, it is suggested that for the companies ready to get in should choose ready technology and technical align with foreign technical leading company. Based on the rich experience of Taiwan LCD industry, the lower cost and higher reliable thin film photovoltaic industries can be developed to achieve the leading position in international market before solar industry life come to maturity stage at 2012.