| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 97 === In the metropolitan areas, the existing shortage of transport facilities of site development often caused serious traffic impact in the neighborhood. However, the detailed traffic impact assessment (TIA) on the prior of its planning and evaluation would cost a huge amount of money on surveying and analysis. Therefore, regarding the common site development of a metropolis, the study hoped using a simpler way of regression analysis to establish a forecasting model and estimate the road traffic impact more efficiently.
The mainstream of the study were based on the nonlinear regression analysis which established the forecasting model of road traffic impact, and it referred to the past literatures, the implemented experiences and every related provision about traffic impact. Furthermore, it considered the feasibility of collected data and constructed model initially with related variables between major and objective bases which selected from every development project. Due to the consideration of existing nonlinear relationship between variables, it required to transform the used variables into a linear relationship by variable transformation, and then estimated the relevant parameters, finally, established a complete nonlinear traffic impact forecasting model. The experimental objects were the final drafts of traffic impact reports from Taipei County site cases at 2007 and 2008, the results revealed that this regression forecasting model could get a great outcome. However, the poor characteristics of the sample data could be seen from the experimental objects through the model accuracy.
It could be applied to forecast the impact of general site development analysis at other metropolitan areas in the future, and cooperated to the traffic present situation or other impact evaluation criteria, and even combined with each local geographic information system and spatial database, so that it facilitated to acquire samples and provided a basis of preliminary investigation and assessment on traffic impact from site development.
|
|---|
