| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 97 === To provide Travel time information for commuters, it will assist the commuters decision the departure time and routing. The school bus is the commuted transportation which runs with regular route and single runs of scheduled bus. If The commuters do not know well the driving information of school, it will result more travel time and cost.
The research use the Global Positioning system receive school bus travel data, and input the school bus speed data to proceed Empirical Mode Decomposition, then employ the Grey Forecasting GM(1,1) Model to prediction IMF and calculate the next station arrival time, finally combine with Historical Profile Approach Model prediction the path travel time. Compared with the experiment results, the researcher set up both the prediction models of travel time, the testing result to appear in the Mean Absolute Error Time and Mean Absolute Percentage Error, are better than Historical Profile Approach. It indicates that this research model can improve the accuracy of travel time. Also, according to the result of questionnaire survey, it shows the broadcasting enquiring system can help customers to save their travel time.
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