| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 交通運輸研究所 === 97 === The rapid economic growth and continuous construction of highways has inevitably led to greater ownership and usage of private motor vehicles in recent decades. This trend has not only created severe congestion on urban roadways and intercity highways, but also excessive emissions and energy consumption. According to many studies and worldwide experiences, it is rather difficult to effectively decelerate the growth trend of private vehicles. In contrast, it is possible to implement proper management strategies to encourage people to choose low-emitted and fuel economy vehicles once they want to purchase or replace a vehicle. However, to devise such strategies depends on the ability to understand the preferences of people in choosing vehicle types. Obviously, a disaggregate vehicle type choice model which can accurately capture people choice behaviors is essential.
From the point-of-view of emissions and energy consumption reduction, vehicle type of interest should includes both engine size and age, since many studies have identified that emissions and energy consumption remarkably vary across engine sizes and ages. Preferences with regard to conventional vehicle types can be surveyed by observing their real choice behaviors i.e. revealed preference. However, since most people don’t own and are not familiar with alternative-fuel vehicles, their preferences regarding these vehicles should be surveyed through a well-designed stated preference questionnaire. To simultaneously determine the choice probabilities across conventional and alternative-fuel vehicle types, this study aims to propose an integrated model by combining both revealed and stated preference models.
To this end, a nationwide questionnaire survey is conducted by disseminating questionnaires to private vehicle owners who bought a car or a motorcycle within recent three years. Based on the valid returned samples, two disaggregate choice models, revealed preference and stated preference, are first separately estimated and then integratedly estimated. The results show that fuel cost, purchasing price, accessibility of refuel stations, purchasing subsidy, pollution degree, income, gender, and education are significant estimated. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models, the changes in the choice probabilities of different vehicle types under various management strategies, including increase of fuel price, provision of purchasing subsidy, accessibility to refuel stations etc., are examined and compared. It shows that provision of purchasing subsidy is the most effective strategy for encouraging people to choose alternative-fuel vehicles. And if refuel stations are not easily accessible, the willingness to purchase alternative-fuel vehicles will be largely curtailed. High vehicle price and low accessibility to refuel stations are the main reasons to explain the low market concentration of alternative-fuel vehicles. Based on these results, corresponding strategies are then proposed accordingly.
|
|---|
