| Summary: | 碩士 === 明新科技大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 97 === China and India were the country which had most populous in the world. With the impact of rapidly growing economic and increasing demand of food, there had a food crisis which caused by global warming. It was causes to unbalanced supply and demand on grain and inflation problems. The study was focused on investigate the relationship of “consumer price index”, “stock index” and the “spot price of rice” in both China and India. The research data was using monthly data from January 1998 to August 2008. The unit-root test, cointegration, vector error correction model, and causality test were used to test was there a long-term cointegration and short-term causality relationship of paddy price exist or not. According to the empirical results, the “consumer price index in Indian” and “Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index” were exist a cointegration relationship with global rice price. Moreover, the “Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index” and “consumer price index in China” had no long-term equilibrium relationship exist, and the subjects were positively influenced in different degree. “The world spot price of rice”, “Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index”, and “consumer price index in China” were all existed a two-way causality relationship. However, the “global rice price” were leading ahead of “consumer price index in India”, and loss behind the “Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index”, and subsist one-way causality relationship.
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