| Summary: | 碩士 === 佛光大學 === 經濟學系 === 97 === Abstract
Investment and financial management is the most ordinary way to accumulate estate in today’s economic society. Stock investment is the most contact tool for the public; however, investors could not involve whole being in studying the trend about the rises and falls of stock. If there is a study can find out the relative significant variables about stock market, and provide the valuable information by observing these variable’s trend for evaluating the stock price for investor’s reference, has become the most concern issue for the public.
This study is to explore the relationships between TAIEX and the relative macroeconomic indexes from 1971 to 2008 (38-year period). These relative 15 chosen macroeconomic indexes are consumer price index, wholesale price index, money supply (M1B), rediscount rates, annual growth rate of demand deposits, annual growth rate of time & savings deposits, net factor income from the rest of the world, national income, private final consumption, the NTD/USD interbank closing spot exchange rate, total scores of monitoring indicators (scores of component indicators), the preceding year period share price index, annual M2 money supply growth rate, annual M1B money supply growth rate, net current transfers from the rest of the world. This study applied regression analysis to analyze the relationships between TAIEX and these 15 variables. Then, methods of enter and stepwise regression analysis were employed as strict comparisons for the model. The results show that annual growth rate of time & savings deposits, net factor income from the rest of the world, national income, private final consumption, the NTD/USD interbank closing spot exchange rate, the preceding year period share price index, net current transfers from the rest of the world, 7 variables had significant influences on TAIEX in the study period. Among them, the preceding year period share price index, net current transfers from the rest of the world, variables both had significant influences on TAIEX either from enter or stepwise regression analysis; however, the other variables had no significant influences.
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