| Summary: | 碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 經濟學所 === 97 === According to data of National Police Agency, Ministry of The Interior, theft has been one of main problems in Taiwan. On average, the ratio of the larceny in all offence is nearly 61.41% from 1999 to 2008. Meanwhile, an upward-sloping trend of general theft is found. One of the purposes in this paper is to see what determine the general theft in Taiwan?
In addition, this paper uses Becker’s subjective expected utility theory to discuss the deterrent effect of punishment to theft. Based on the theory, an increase of clearance rate will increase behaviors’ expected costs, and the crime rate will decrease in turn, other things being equal. The second purpose in this paper is to see whether the increase in clearance rate can deter the general theft.
Using the monthly data from 1999 to 2008 in Taiwan, we employ co-integration model to analyze what cause theft problem and to see whether the deterrent effect exists. Empirical evidence shows first, a significantly positive relationship between the clearance rate of general theft and the quantity of general theft. Meaning that, no deterrent effect is found. On the contrary, the clearance rate of robbery does deter the general theft. In addition, we found the new law system of criminal code about independent punishment for several offences on theft will influence the quantity of general theft in the short time. Also, we found the effect of the unemployment rate is significantly positive. It means when the unemployment rate increases, the quantity of general theft will rise. Unfortunately, the effect of the consumer price index is insignificant.
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