A study of forecasting demand for shared materials in mass-customized footwear

• Main Authors: Cheng-wei Lin, 林正偉
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/73109710031478009012

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 工業工程與系統管理學研究所 === 97 === Recently, in order to response diverse customers’ demand, enterprise’s production models trend to mass customization model from mass production model. Mass-customized is one of production models based on customer-demand-orientated and its diversification product combinations consist of variety materials and components. Therefore, the demand prediction of materials and components under mass-customized production model will be more important than traditional mass production model, and through well selecting better prediction models will help enterprises acquire suitable inventory level, and reduce inventory cost and risk as well. This article uses a shoe model, PN-S type, as an example from mass-customized footwear departments of Nike Company to analyze its material demand quantity of every single month for almost 15-month duration. Applying EXCEL and LINDO software to simulate demand quantity through 3 prediction models, Exponential Smoothing model, Grey Prediction model and Fuzzy Exponential Smoothing model, and then compare the simulation results with real demand quantity. As to simulation result, the simulation of Fuzzy Exponential Smoothing model is superior to others when there is an obvious uptrend demand for materials. When to simulate short-term demand quantity, Fuzzy Exponential Smoothing model provides more stable stimulation result than Grey Prediction model. Comparing the result of 3 prediction methodologies for predicting demand quantity of mass-customized with real demand quantity concludes this research analysis and hopefully, this effort will provide a reference to footwear manufactures whom intend to implement mass customization production model.