| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 國際貿易研究所 === 97 === Recent years, the price of international crude oil keeps increasing, furthermore, since 2008, it overtook the bottleneck of one hundred dollars per barrow more than one time. Besides, because of Taiwanese environmental factors, crude oil which refined in Taiwan is extremely limited, crude oil imports exceed 98 percent of Taiwanese oil demand. We have no doubt that Taiwanese highly depends on international crude oil trading. So that energy prices have critical impacts on Taiwanese agriculture, manufacturing industry, service industry as well as final consumers, and these prices affect macroeconomic aspects, environmental aspects, income distribution as well as industry structure, extensively.
Former literatures which used computable general equilibrium analysis to research on the revolution of sales taxes, oil market liberalization, energy taxes and price shock effects, etc. In addition Linear Expenditure System and Almost Ideal Demand System apply to tourist and manufacturing industries researches. However, these theorems dose not popular in finding the relationships between energy prices and macroeconomic aspects, environmental aspects, income distribution as well as industrial structure. In doing so, in this research, we use 2009-2030 crude oil prices, coal prices, nature gas prices forecasts of American energy information to discuss the impacts of international of energy prices on economics and income distribution in Taiwan, Furthermore, the comparison of Linear Expenditure System and Almost Ideal Demand System.
In our findings, empirical results indicate that international energy prices have negative impacts on Taiwanese macroeconomic environment, industrial structure, as well income distribution, and reduce the carbon dioxide emission. Finally, in the comparison of two demand theorems, our findings suggest that Almost Ideal Demand System jeopardize the empirical estimates more than Linear Expenditure System.
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