Long-term Care Expenditure Forecasting for Disabled Elderly in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Chia Wei Hsu, 許家瑋
• Other Authors: K. J. Chen
• Format: Others
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/86065168027722801419

碩士 === 長庚大學 === 醫務管理學研究所 === 97 === Abstract Currently, Taiwan’s long-term care policy has gradually changed from social assistance to social insurance and from assistance to prevention. Comparing OECD countries’ long-term care system history with Taiwanese population distribution, family structure and living patterns, “aging in place” meets the demand of most disabled elderly taking home care as the priority, which is Taiwan’s most suitable long-term care model. “aging in place” can be divided into home care and community resource intervention. Home care provides family members with major care, and requires assistance and financial support; community resource intervention aims at cooperation between family members and professional caregivers, which allows the disabled to be able to receive more professional service, and it can also avoid the shortcomings of long-term care’s over-organization, and reduce long-term care costs. The study found that 2005’s “Elderly condition survey” of the Ministry of the Interior and 2007’s elderly disabled report published by OECD are highly related when using the logistic growth model to calculate the maximum value of Taiwan and OECD countries’ elderly disability prevalence, and then graduating it as single year age cohort’s elderly disability prevalence. This proves that the elderly disability prevalence estimated by the 2005 “elderly condition survey” is feasible, and is also comparable with the relevant data of OECD countries’ elderly people with disabilities. As aging is a predictable factor of elderly people with disabilities, therefore, disability prevalence and disability severity are both graduated to single year of cohort’s, which can more precisely estimate the short-term, mid-term and long-term elderly disabled population and long-term care expenditures through the changes of population structure, disability prevalence and disability severity.