| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中正大學 === 財務金融所 === 97 === This paper applies a financial portfolio theory in conventional tourism planning with the US as a case study. The US tourism industry has experienced dramatic fluctuations in recent years due to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The objective of this study is to identify the optimal tourist market combination that can minimize the instability of growth rate of foreign tourist arrivals based on mean-variance criterion. While describing the efficient frontier and determining the tourism market portfolio mix solutions, the policy-makers should avoid the instability by minimizing the fluctuations in tourism demand. Empirical results can shed light on diversification in the tourism market and offer tourism authorities and policy-makers explicit guidelines for risk management in the long-term development of the US tourism industry. For example, to achieve 282.3 million foreign tourist arrivals to US in 2020 as forecasted by the “Tourism 2020 Vision” of World Tourism Organization in 2001, the US tourism market needs to at least maintain a 3.9 percent growth rate of foreign tourist arrivals per year over the period from 1995 to 2020 and the US tourism authorities and policy-makers should shift available resources to UK, Mexico and Canada. And if they pursue the highest reward ratio, they have to focus on UK, rest of Asia (exclude Japan), and Mexico markets. More policy implications are provided to guide tourism authorities and policy-makers.
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