The Relationship between Export Orders and Macroeconomic Factors

• Main Authors: Hui-Lan Tu, 杜慧蘭
• Other Authors: Yu-Pin Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/52226196042754172031

碩士 === 真理大學 === 財經研究所 === 97 === Taiwan is an island country whose economic development depends largely on international trade. Export orders are frequently seen as indicators of national export by government institutes and researchers. This study attempts to take export order as one of the variables to investigate those factors affecting Taiwan’s macroeconomics. Collected data as sample in this study, dating from January 2000 to May 2008, includes exchange rate, discount rate, unemployment rate, export price index, Taiwan weighed stock index, North American semiconductor book-to-bill ratio, foreign direct investment. This paper intends to discuss the correlation and influence between these seven variables; besides, their major impact on Taiwan’s export will also be analyzed. The results revealed that export orders will have Granger-cause on Taiwan weighed index, exchange rate, unemployment rate, export price index and foreign direct investment.Unemployment rate, export price index and Taiwan weighted stock index have a continuous positive impact on changes of export order. While exchange rate , discount rate and North American semiconductor book-to-bill ratio showed gradual negative track. The analysis showed that Taiwan weighting stock price index, unemployment rate and foreign investment are among three influential variables influencing the changes of Taiwan export order.