| Summary: | 碩士 === 真理大學 === 數理科學研究所 === 97 === Recently, medical environment has improved and medical technology has progressed, the proportion of old age population is increasing. The extension of life causes more medical reserve, and health insurance is getting more popular. Rate-making is based on static morbidity, but the growth tendency of morbidity has not been considered. Under pricing will make insurance company to expose under operational risk.
The purpose of this paper is to find out the relation between morbidity and time, and try to figure out the issues of current pricing in practice. This paper uses one million sampling data from national health insurance research database in 2005, to predict hospitalization rate. Methods include dynamic Lee-Carter model and take MAPE for judgment rule. For getting better model, this paper considered the difference between young and old ages and model fit in age.
In application, this paper has compared the morbidity and price between a sample product and a product of an existing life insurance company. The result shows under pricing of the existing insurance company. The problem of insufficient premium will come out with solvency in the long run. Thus we suggest that life insurance company should take the problem seriously, and use the method of nature hedging or other methods to decrease risk of company in the future.
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