| Summary: | 碩士 === 元智大學 === 管理研究所 === 96 === The growth and innovation of semiconductor industry follows closely to the demand of consumer electronic products, and leaves limitless room for imagination. With demand for IC functionality, energy level reduction, and production cost-down, semiconductor manufacturers are driven further to use every means possible to minimize resource usage while advancing product’s efficiency. Following the technology trend described in Moore’s law, the next approaching process technology is 22nm. One must question that if 22nm is really needed to satisfy future product requirements. This study will attempt to use “scenario in technology forecasting” to predict whether 22nm technology can be achieved by the year 2011. It will also predict products that may appear in 22 nm technology and its cost.
The uncertain factors that will impact the development of 22 nm are: 1) The profitability of IC industry; 2) The application and IC market conditions; 3) The new materials development of 22nm technology, and in accordance with its optimistic and pessimistic situation to establish five different situations.
Finally, this study will also analyze the opportunities and threats based on the uncertain factors in accordance with industry, technology and market demands. Based on this analysis and further consideration of the driving force behind overall industry and individual entities, recommended strategies will be presented for industry manufacturers.
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