Establishing the Expected Profit Model of the Crashing Project with Project Completion Probability and PSO Method

• Main Authors: Yu-Chiun Chen, 陳育群
• Other Authors: 任�睄�
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16562393108196608753

碩士 === 元智大學 === 工業工程與管理學系 === 96 === The project uncertainty is always the reason of project delay or budget overrun. In practice, project managers often estimate the project cost and schedule depending on their historical experiences. In the process of estimating both project cost and schedule, it is usually hard to achieve good balance between project duration and cost. Project crashing of construction project, especially makes it hard to get this balance. Past research of project activity time-cost trade-off mainly focus on the deterministic activity time and costs, with some studies on stochastic time and cost factors to find the solution. But they seldom consider project completion risk, namely the chance to finish the project in limit budget on time. The objective of the research is to estimate project completion probability and to establish the project expected profit model. It includes minimizing project direct cost, estimating project completion probability, establishing project expect profit model, and risk response plan. First, PSO heuristic algorithm is used to get the minimum project direct cost. Project completion probabilities are estimated by Monte Carlo Simulation. The time and duration based on PSO method is compared with the probability matrix derived from Monte Carlo Simulation. Usually the on-time project completion rate can be increased by adding more project budget. This is justified based on the expected profit equation from the research. It is shown from the case study that the proposed research model and profit equation can assist the project manager in making better decision on project crashing.