The Irrational Exuberance in China

• Main Authors: Zhen-Liang Chen, 陳政亮
• Other Authors: 李志強
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/11436665879354098484

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 中國大陸研究所碩士班 === 96 === Mainland China stock market overheat after innovating till these years.Many academics provided many sorts of explains or test for the part which market price exceed fundamental value, they found one reason of it is the exit of speculative bubbles. In this paper, we only test this stock market which is bubblelized or not. Present value model is a fundamental stone in this paper, we use the market fundamental value solution that Compell and Shiller defined to estimate the invisible value of bubbles and test the mainland China stock market imply bubbles or not so that make stock price diverge from market fundamental value. According to the result, in the duration of bubbles during 2002~2007 in China,it appears two irrational bubbles. The bubble appear in 2003,and declining in 2004.It because the macro-control works. But the interference of government cannot against the power of hot money at all so that the bubbles appear again after 2006,and arose suddenly even in the last semi-year 2006,it means the irrational act of investors will effect stock price over fundamental value. So we can explain the decline of stock market price in 2007 is because that some investors'' attitude for investing turn to safer, but some non-informational investors still invest something, till the bubbles broken, they will become sufferers. For the final, as Green Spain said, we can see that mainland China stock market does have the trace of irrational exuberance resent years.