| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班 === 96 === War has been constantly occurring throughout human history. Despite frequent unofficial exchanges between China and Taiwan, numerous uncertainties remain due to political and ideological differences. The security situation in northeast Asia and even Asia-Pacific region can be compromised if the military balance continues to shift in China’s favor. It is surely a concerned topic for cross-strait affairs observers to discuss whether or not the US or other countries would intervene either politically or militarily if the conflicts break out across the Taiwan Strait.
The Chinese military had sent observers to study how the western allies conducted the Kosovo conflict and two Iraqi wars. The observers learned that the US began warfare in law, opinion, and psychology before they launched the second Iraqi war in 2003, which inspires China to make preparations for its future security strategies and regional high-tech and digital wars. The Chinese military believed that law war provides a legitimate excuse to attack their enemy. Therefore, the concept of “law war” was introduced into the “Political Work Regulation” in December 2003, which is the guiding legal provision for political work during wartime.
In March 2005, the National People’s Congress passed the “Anti-secession Law.” Many countries began to worry that this law might unilaterally change the status of the cross-strait relations, because Taiwan might violate this law by pushing for independence and trigger serious military conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. The passage of this law is aimed to deterring Taiwan to become independent and giving a lawful excuse to block the US and Japan from intervening using Taiwan Relation Act and US-Japan Security Pact as legal basis. At the same time, China plays a soft tactic by giving Taiwan many favors as part of its ''carrot and stick'' strategy.
China will complete the preparations for establishing “contingency-response combat capabilities” before 2007, building up its “combat capabilities for large-scale military engagement” before 2010, and ensuring “victory in a decisive battle” before 2015. The author tries to reveal China’s true intentions, future moves and formulate Taiwan’s countermeasures by analyzing China’s law-making process of the “Anti-secession Law” and their military preparation. There are six chapters in this thesis. Chapter one is the introduction. Chapter two discusses the origin, significance and purpose of China’s anti-secession law against Taiwan based on the second Iraqi war experience. Chapter three states the law making process and analyzes how China will possibly utilize the law to suppress Taiwan. Chapter four probes into the effect of the law from the viewpoint of armed conflict approach. Chapter five rebuts China’s legal theory from an international law viewpoint, and suggests Taiwan counter Beijing’s law war by strengthening its ties with its allies and building up military deterrent power.
After the analysis of the five chapters, readers should be able to understand that China intends to win over Taiwanese people through their “soft” tactic, and prepare to carry out the hard tactic with military readiness. The thesis also bases on the analysis of the chapter 1 to 5 to induce conclusions and give a direction for follow-on research. It is hoped that a mutually trusted mechanism can be established by both sides to avoid accidental military conflict, and will help to reach peace in the future.
|
|---|
