The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Demand

• Main Authors: Ching-sui Hung, 洪菁穗
• Other Authors: Shu Liang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/teprz4

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 國際經營與貿易學系 === 96 === The purpose of this thesis is to investigate recent consumption behavior for oil in the United States during a period characterized by a new wave of global economic change. Previous researches didn’t consider the asymmetric effect of changes in the oil demand function. We adopt two empirical models by Gately and Huntington(2002) as follows: the first one is a traditional demand model in which assumes the symmetric response to changes in oil price. Price and income elasticitise can be calculated. The second model is an imperfect price-reversibility model, in which oil price into three parts: one is the historical highest oil price, another is continuously increase in price, and the other is decline in oil price. Along with the declining reserves of petroleum, many countries promote the alternative energy of policy. Therefore, we include the biomass price in the oil demand model to see if the price elasticity of demand shows significant differences empirically. To discuss if there’s any existence of influence on US’s promoting the alternative energy policy until now is the second purpose in this study. The major empirical results as follows: First, the model suitability of the imperfect price- reversibility approach is better than the traditional demand model. Second, income elasticity is greater than price elasticity whether in which of these two models. Third, income elasticity of gasoline retail price is negative. Last, the historical highest oil price is positive with gasoline demand but the continuously increase in oil price is negative with gasoline demand.