Mean Velocity Forecast for Highway System Using Kinematic Theory

• Main Authors: Yu-Chien Lin, 林宇騫
• Other Authors: Feng-Li Lian
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/73743195294485519608

碩士 === 臺灣大學 === 電機工程學研究所 === 96 === Traffic forecast is one of fundamental abilities in intelligent transportation system (ITS) and advance traffic management system (ATMS). Accurate traffic information prediction is also crucial to modify traffic management strategy before traffic state change. Existing traffic forecast techniques use traffic information concerned only at single location without neighborhoods. Highway framework and traffic stream behavior are usually ignored in traffic forecast. This thesis proposes the concept of kinematic theory for a traffic forecast model. The model can be used to analyze traffic stream distribution and realistic relation between flow and velocity, and then observe vehicle motion in space by time variation to predict flow and velocity in sequence. This study adopts macroscopic traffic parameters and combines traffic variation in time and space to provide a simple forecast method with traffic property. Furthermore, some simulations demonstrate the predicted result for the forecast model.