| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 96 === This study examines the current situation and social-economic characteristics of tourism industry in Taiwan, and using the length of stay and expenditures to estimate the demand of tourism. The data comes from the original sampling data of “Annual Survey Report on Visitors Expenditure and Trends in Taiwan” and “Survey of Travel by R.O.C Citizens” from 2003 to 2006, which is produced by Tourism Bureau, Taiwan, and combines with the aggregate data of consumption and index.
Because of the characteristics of data, the Zero-truncated Negative Binomial Model, and Zero-truncated Regression Model have been set up, in order to discuss the factors that influence the length of stay and expenditures of tour around Taiwan respectively in Taiwan and foreign country tourists. In addition, variables are assorted to four groups – economic, characteristics, time, and personal variables and compared with these effects between tourist in Taiwan and foreign countries. Different with the time-series data which most tourism research used, this study uses the pool data of cross-section data in order to fit the data characteristics.
In descriptive ststistics, there are many differences between tourists in Taiwan and foreign countries. Tourists in Taiwan mainly make sightseeing tour with family members; the length of stay is less than one day; people who is middle and low income is the main tourists, and the high season is obvious to survey. Comparatively, tourists in Europe and America mainly make business tour, but Tourists in Asia mainly make sightseeing tour. The largest sourses of foreign tourists is Japan, and the high season is not as obvious as tourists in Taiwan.
In the empirical model, the length of stay in Taiwan tourists is affected by income, entertainment cost, company, travel time, and season; the expenditures in Taiwan tourists is affected by income, transportation cost, company, travel time, and season. And the length of stay in foreign countries tourists is influenced by exchange rate, stay cost, entertainment cost, education cost, propose, season, and distance; the expenditures in fortigh countries tourists is influenced by income, exchange rate, entertainment cost, and education cost, and season.
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