| Summary: | 碩士 === 臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 96 === In this study we integrate the input-output approach and multiple objective programming to establish the multiple-objective decision models. The main objectives of our programming are economic, energy demand and CO2 emissions. The model simulates and analyzes the impacts of CO2 mitigation strategies in four topics, seven scenarios. Four topics are total emissions control, energy tax, electricity price adjustment, and carbon tax. In scenarios of total CO2 emission control, we focus on assessing impacts of total CO2 emission control on the trade-off among three conflicting objectives, output of industries, and future industrial structure. Under the pressure of CO2 reduction, we can find out the improved industrial structure in the future. In scenarios of energy tax, electricity price adjustment, and carbon tax, we focus on assessing impacts of different price adjustment strategy of energy on the trade-off among three conflicting objectives, the CO2 reduction cost, energy conserving and substituting behavior of industries, and the moving trend of the energy demand.
The results of total CO2 emission control show:
1. Under the pressure of CO2 reduction, service industry is a mainstream industry in the future.
2. If we observe industrial structure adjustment trend, we can find that most industries falls in the weight of industry structure under the pressure of CO2 reduction, except for service industry and paper industry.
3. Steel industry and petrochemical industry are both one of the industries of declining by a large scale in the simulation. As to comparatively static result of overall plan, our research does not encourage the large-scale investment of steel industry and petrochemical industry.
In the scenarios of energy taxation, electricity price adjustment and carbon taxation, results show:
1. Form the viewpoint of CO2 reduction cost, electricity price adjustment strategy is superior to the implementation of energy taxation and carbon taxation. Relative to the cost of energy taxation is 3641 NT dollar per unit carbon dioxide reduction, the cost of carbon taxation is 1598 NT dollar per unit carbon dioxide reduction, and the cost of electricity price adjustment strategy is only 361 NT dollars per unit carbon dioxide reduction.
2. Although the effect of energy taxation and carbon taxation are more energy-conserving than electricity price adjustment, electricity price adjustment strategy is more effective in carbon dioxide reduction. The main reason lies in that the carbon dioxide discharge coefficient of electricity is the tallest of 8 kinds of fuel in this research , up to 7.4186 (tCO2/ kcal); therefore, electricity is the key energy which determines the amount of CO2 emission.
3. Base on the premise that the tax revenue is close; the effect of carbon dioxide reduction of the carbon taxation exceeds the energy taxation.
|
|---|
