| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 土木工程學研究所 === 96 === This research is analyzed the impact under climate change and chosen watershed of Feisui reservoir as the studying case.
This research is used the decretory method of Mann-Kendall and probability distribution to analyze data(history、RSM、reanalysis data).In order to response climate change in the future, using the GCM data witch is dynamical downscaled by RSM as the input of HSPF model. HSPF can simulate the inflow of watershed of Feisui reservoir under climate change. According to the result of simulation, we expect to be able to find impact of the water resource in the future. it is right to adjust and response early.
According to the result, rainfall is decrease and temperature is increase by using the method of Mann-Kendall; Probability distribution of rainfall will be changed in the future. Result of inflow simulation is increase acutely in July and is increase in October, November and December. But result of inflow simulation is decrease in May and June. The divide of wet and drought season will be changed.
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