Risk-based Drought Early Warning System on Te-Chi and Li-Yu-Tan Reservoirs

• Main Authors: Yu-Sheng Tsai, 蔡宇昇
• Other Authors: Wen-Cheng Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/66634326648817417801

碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 河海工程學系 === 96 === The precipitation is unevenly distributed over time and space in Taiwan. It leads to frequent floods and droughts. Constrained by Taiwan，s topography and rainfall distribution ,the water-resource management is difficult and needs to be thoroughly planned to cope with rising water demands. In this research, an early warning system was developed and proposed for drought management on the real-time reservoir operation. The system consists of three essential elements, namely, (a) drought watch, (b) water consumption measure, and (c) policy making. A Drought Alert Index (DAI) was used to characterize the alert level of drought severity. In addition, this study presents a risk-based decision model integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. Aspects of posterior risk, the corresponding options to given chances was provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. Besides, a user-friendly decision support system (DSS) for drought early warning system on DEWS has been introduced with an eye to practical use. As a pioneering experiment, both Te-Chi and Li-Yu-Tan reservoirs in the central Taiwan were tested. The results show that the developed risk-based drought early warning system can really react to droughts occurred. The system can assist reservoir managers to work out applicable rule for real-time reservoir operation. Keywords：Drought ; Early warning system ; Risk ; Decision making.