| Summary: | 博士 === 國立中山大學 === 財務管理學系研究所 === 96 === The current study empirically analyzes the extreme behavior and the impact of deregulation policies as well as financial turmoil on the extreme behavior of changes of Taiwan short term interest rate. A better knowledge of short-term interest rate properties, such as heavy tails, asymmetry, and uneven tail fatness between right and left tails, provide an insight to the extreme behavior of short-term interest rate as well as a more accurate estimation of interest risk. The predicting performances of filtered and unfiltered VaR (Value at risk) models are also examined to suggest the proper models for management of interest rate risk. By applying Extreme Value theory (EVT), tail behavior is analyzed and tested and the VaR based on parametric and non-parametric EVT models are calculated.The empirical findings show that, first, the distribution of change of rate are heavy-tailed indicating that the actual risk would be underestimated based on normality assumption. Second, the unconditional distribution is consistent with the heavier-tailed distributions such as ARCH process or Student’t. Third, the right tail of distribution of change of rate are significantly heavier than the left one pointing out that the probabilities and magnitudes of rise in rate could be higher than those of drop in rate. Fourth, the amount of tail-fatness in tail of distribution of change of rate increase after 1999 and the vital factors to cause structural break in tail index are the interest rate policies taken by central bank of Taiwan instead of the deregulation policies in money market. Fifth, based on the two break points found in tail index of right and left tail, long sample of CP rates should not be treated as samples from a single distribution. Sixth, the dependent and heteroscedastic properties of data series should be considered in applying EVT to improve accuracy of VaR forecasts. Finally, EVT models predict VaR accurately before 2001 and the benchmark model, HS and GARCH, generally are superior to EVT models after 2001. Among EVT models, MRE and CHE are relative consistent and reliable in VaR prediction.
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