| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄海洋科技大學 === 航運管理研究所 === 96 === The empirical evidence on the relationship of the bulk carrier shipping in the new ship, second hand, freight and ship for demolition as the research variables by the methodology are seasonal decomposes, HP(Hedrick & Prescott)filter and VECM(Vector Error Correction Model). The research is a monthly data form January 1996 to December 2007. The study of X-11 finds the season peak is from October to December, the falling tendency appears progressively from June to August. Second, Cycle of the four sub-markets expansion phase is longer more than the collapse phasing, and that still rises in long-term trend at the end of 2007. In the four sub-markets of bulk carrier shipping fluctuates according to the research. It will present the trend, increase scope of degree by the freight market biggest, the new ships market will smallest. Moreover, in the Granger Causality and Co-integration Test which examines the freight market to other three markets pools highly correlation and they exist for a long term relationship, Therefore the freight market is acting on the market. Furthermore, the research of VECM model result analysis, the new ships, second hand ships and ship for demolition obviously to fall the freight market influence the lag number periods. Finally, it shows when the single market trend has been changed, besides to itself impact influence biggest, in the short-term the only second hand ships market is been highly impact by the new ships market, but the other markets are strongly influenced by the freight market.
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