| Summary: | 碩士 === 南華大學 === 環境管理研究所 === 96 === Based on the basin life circle idea, this research studies the optimization of water rationing of water source from the Hsintien creek and the Tahan creek, in order to utilize the water resources effectively. The research also aims to set up the water supply systems respectively for Taipei, Taoyuan and Hsinchu area in the entire time domain pattern, analyzing the hydrology historic information, current water supply system and agricultural water use data covering Banhsin and Taoyuan area, obtaining the water scarcity index in various regions in different target years and situations, in order to achieve the goal of water sufficiency.
In order to reduce the water supply risk to achieve the water supply stability in Taoyuan area, the simulation calculating method is adapted to establish the module. According to the system hypothesis, like reservoir operating conditions and operation strategy, the study describes the water source operation in detail and the influence on target water consumption. The factors of affecting the water supply stability and the subsequent procedures can be derived by simulating analysis of northern area water source and the target year. The region water scarcity rate index can be obtained to predict the water supply system stability.
In addition, the Taoyuan area recently has frequently suffers from the typhoons and the heavy rain storms, causing disaster and heavy loss. So this research also simulates the situation when the reservoir’s raw water turbidity is tremendously high because of natural disasters, which potentially causes water shortage crisis. The historical typhoon data are put into the module to obtain the water production capacity of water purification plants in different raw water turbidity. Furthermore, the relationship between the reservoirs’s raw water turbidity and the water production capacity of water purification plants will be built. And under the moderate improvement of water facilities, the influence on water scarcity degree and the way how to select the water supply pattern is analyzed.
This research uses regression analysis to estimate the target year water demand, and derives the water supply shortage crisis factors in the northern area by simulation. However the hydrology water scarcity year (namely dry drought year) is still eventually probable.
Hence, the contingency program must be set up in respect to the water scarcity factors in the dry drought year to guarantee the water resources system reliability and the water supply stability.
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