A STUDY OF FINANCIAL PRE-WARNING MODEL FOR LISTED REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY IN TAIWAN

• Main Authors: Wan-ji Jhuang, 莊萬吉
• Other Authors: Ching-jun Hsu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/52811262981769713838

碩士 === 南華大學 === 財務金融學系財務管理碩士班 === 96 === 　　Many have stressed the importance on the financial crisis forecasting of private real estate companies, and this is a topic that has been extensively studied. Traditional studies utilize financial ratios to construct the financial distress alerting models. However, the models considering only financial ratios couldn’t effectively predict financial distress events happening in recent years. 　　 　　This study intends to construct a financial distress alerting model not only with financial factors, but also with corporate governance, which are demonstrated to affect financial distress dramatically. After combining the information of financial factors and corporate factors, this study creates a “Corporate Governance” financial distress alerting model which can improve the weaknesses of traditional financial distress alerting models. The sample architecture companies surveyed are listed at Taiwan stock market. Data period of the sample companies is from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2006. 　　 　　The results show that the inclusion of “Corporate Governance” variable can enhance the predictive power of the logit model. The results suggest accuracy percentage could reach 93.33% two years before bankruptcy, and 86.67%, 80.00%, respectively three and four years before bankruptcy.