A Study on Seeking of Risk Preference Function and its Efficiency on Ranking and Decision Making

• Main Authors: Ho Hsuan-Yu, 何選予
• Other Authors: Lin Huei-Tsan
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51775081934738174859

碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 後勤管理研究所 === 96 === The study on risk control in the early stage is particular concern on financial risk, industrial or personnel insurance risk. Following the vigorous development of project management body of knowledge, however, the concept of risk management and its application is expanding to various management aspects and becomes a powerful means of management which makes the risk events from incontrollable to a planable, preventable and addressable management method. In light of the insufficient part for the study of Blanchard (1991) and McKim (1992) in two different risk functions, this research proposes three relative risk preference functions which are ″risk conservative function″, ″risk neutral function″ and ″risk endurable function″ and its characteristic analysis as well as related decision making model. In addition, this research also extract weapon system acquision program’s significant risk events by using questionnaire and exploratory factor analysis, which successfully validate those risk preference function’s effectiveness on ranking and decision making process. There are few important findings we found in the research process as follows: (1) Three different types of risk function in risk events ranking are consistence. (2) The adjusted parameter m and n can make risk preference function more reasonable and flexible. (3) The risk function type for the relatively high impact but low probability risks or vice versa will pay more attention than other two different risk function types. (4) and are important factors for risk handling. (5) The management experience is very important for weapon system acquisition program risk events evaluation. (6) The value of risk probability and impact must be definite. (7) The main risks in our weapon system acquisition program belong to the system design and technique aspects. This research has already accomplished risk preference function analysis. The potential research worker can refer to this framework, using sensitive analysis method for parameter m and n, or further discuss the decision making model that possesses the known relation characteristics between impact and probability, as well as the response method and improvement budget for risk events.