Applying System Dynamics to Construct Military Capability Assessment Model

• Main Authors: Yi Ming Huang, 黃毅銘
• Other Authors: Tien Sung Chio
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/46868857151872731909

碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 國防決策科學研究所 === 96 === Abstract The military development across Taiwan Strait is a system under complicated environment. It is a fact that the budget in national defense listed by China has been increasing and its military strength had led to an imbalanced situation across the Strait. This paper aims at discussing the gap of military strength constructed by and between Taiwan and China. How can we develop our military force and eliminate the imbalance shown in the military strength in a macro view under the realistic situation reflected across the Strait? Our budget policy in national defense is planned to maintain at 3% of GDP. Without considering the budget in national defense cast by China, can we effectively decrease the gap shown in military forces? Therefore, the core problem explored by this study lies in discussing the balance of military forces between Taiwan and China in a macro view and by systematic thinking and establishing a model for calculating military forces. Meanwhile, this study also focuses on the differences in military strength and discusses the legitimacy of the budget policies in national defense at the moment. This study applied system dynamics. Quantitative and qualitative models were established through systematic thinking. The “interactive models of military forces across the Strait” were established for analyzing the outcome and impacts arising from the imbalance of military forces between Taiwan and China. In this study, two hypotheses were proposed against military strategies across the Strait: (1) the quota devoted in national defense economies was positively and significantly related to military forces; and (2) China and Taiwan establish their military forces based on the military strength developed by the other. It is found that the time point with the occurrence of imbalance of military forces was in 2005 discussed from the systematic view. Currently, the military strength in Taiwan is 18 years lagging behind that in China. Based on “Presumed Analysis on Budget Policies”, this study found that the budget in national defense in Taiwan accounted relatively low if it was maintained at 3% of GDP while the budget in national defense in China was increasing. Consequently, the imbalance of military strength between Taiwan and China would get more obvious. An increase of the budget in national defense may be properly considered from a systematic point of view, which will effectively decrease the gap and imbalance of military strength across the Strait.