| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 全球運籌管理研究所 === 96 === The product life cycles of modern merchandises, such as mobile phones, have been impacted by the evolution of innovative technology. The innovation of mobile phones turns the role of the cell phone from the traditional communication products into the multi-functional action goods. Under the situation of high popularity of mobile phones, the sales forecast of its product life cycles may lead a contribution to further realize the behavior of the market. A better realization of the market will have an opportunity to coordinate the supply of the demand to achieve a better inventory management.
One of the most popular product life cycle models adopted in this research is Bass Model (1969). Bass model is dedicated not only to product life cycle but also to sales volume forecast. This paper first utilizes Bass model to forecast the mean demand along the product life cycle of the third generation (3G) cell phone sales data in Taiwan. Then, the variance of the cumulative sales volume is estimated by the method based on Stochastic Bass Model in Niu (2002). In order to catch the variance of the sales volume, this research proposes a try and error method to estimate the change of the demand. Based upon the estimated mean and variance of demand in each period, (s, S) inventory policy is utilized to illustrate the behavior of inventory supply of the demand. The results show that the forecasted demand matches real trend of the data, and the requirements of the supply seems to be bounded within a fixed range.
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