| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立彰化師範大學 === 會計學系 === 96 === Under the risk environment of changes and competition, this study tries to explore how to establish supplier selection model under the condition of stochastic demand of the buyers and the stochastic delivery lead-time of the suppliers. The total expected cost includes the related expected operating cost and the expected loss cost due to supplier failure to deliver. We measure the suppliers’ output flexibility and by means of decision tree analysis to obtain the minimum expected loss cost. Then, the resource constraints are added to the supplier selection model. While the supplier selection model can be easily solved using common commercial packages to obtain the best solutions of how many suppliers should be selected and how much purchasing should be allocated to them. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model, this study also extend research cases of Liao and Rittscher (2007). The research result indicates that under the condition of stochastic demand and delivery lead-time, the buyers tend to select more suppliers as a way to reduce the expected loss risk. However, it is discovered in the sensitivity analysis that the reliability of the suppliers dominates the number of suppliers selected. As long as the suppliers can provide an appropriate level of reliability, no matter how the levels of suppliers’ flexibility, the selection of a single supplier will be the best strategy; therefore, in the mutual negotiation between buyers and sellers regarding management, it is hoped that the best goals for win-win strategy be achieved under the mutual coordination.
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