The Prediction of Overdue Loans for Small and Medium Enterprises
碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 產業經濟研究所碩士在職專班 === 96 === According to 2007 White Paper On Small And Medium Enterprises In Taiwan, small and medium enterprises is 97.77 percent of total enterprises in Taiwan. They played a very important role of economic development in Taiwan’s history. The banks have popularized...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Others |
| Language: | zh-TW |
| Published: |
2008
|
| Online Access: | http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/28412490771118757365 |
| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 產業經濟研究所碩士在職專班 === 96 === According to 2007 White Paper On Small And Medium Enterprises In Taiwan, small and medium enterprises is 97.77 percent of total enterprises in Taiwan. They played a very important role of economic development in Taiwan’s history. The banks have popularized the loans of small and medium enterprises in recent years. But it has serious asymmetric information between banks and enterprises. The most significant failing of the small and medium enterprises is that the financial statement is always untruthful and causing the difficulty in finance.
For a long time, the loans of small and medium enterprises in banks always depend on the credit censor’s judgment call that accumulated experience in those fields. This research is using the case of Taiwan’s small and medium enterprises both in normal and in default on loans.
This research is an empirical analysis by Logit and Probit models for fundamental data of small and medium enterprises and financial statements factors. We hope that we could improve the percentage of correctly predicting on overdue loans. The empirical results of this analysis are as follows,
(1)The moderate corrections elevated the overall classified correctly predicting probability of both the Logit and Probit models reaches about 74.78% to 75.65%.
(2)We got that the explanatory variables are statistically significant as follows, existent years of enterprise、ages of chairman、marital status of chairman、the chairman’s use ratio of credit、inquiry bank numbers of chairman within 3 months in JCIC and certification of finance by accountant. The non- financial factors are more significant than the financial factors.
(3)This study is the same with the other paper’s empirical results. Logit model is better than Probit model.
|
|---|