| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 財務金融學系碩士在職專班 === 96 === This researches as adopt land development method of analysis evaluate land development individual cases, and as cash rate of flow analysis inquire into development case each cash rate of flow and fund breach, inquiring when bank do not increase give believe volume time, market price and cost of building or manufacture change to enterprise land development case zhi profit margin, each a cash rate of flow and fund breach alteration in taking advantage of sensitive analyze, by means of as knows commodity price change to bank give believe risk''s affection. Bank besides picks up storing operating fund in acquit account to control outside fund flow direction in order to decrease cash rate of flow risk, and inquires into as estate develop affiance control manage land development zhi cash rate of flow, assistants to debase bank give believe risk.
Another as Taiwan economically newspaper ( TEJ) Data base''s appear on market ( Cupboard) Constructs company open finance data for sampling, picking up 10 finances crises construct company; But contrasts crisis'' normal company, Then as crisis take place year with should crisis company camp receive or magnitude close person as standard. Selects the ratio of sample as 1:2 is match principle, select each 30 samples of crisis company and normal company, and the average number of two year financial indexs which happened before crisis events as our research samples. Adopts Logit model difference establish tradition finance target, cash rate of flow finance target, synthesizes finance target establish finance crisis forewarn model, by means of understanding joins cash rate of flow target to finance crisis forewarn model whether can promotion right rate.
Findings as land development individual cases for basis, which inquires into develop case''s each item loan risk, and three finances target establish zhi forewarn model differentiate crisis company. Synthesizes finance target establish zhi forewarn model differentiate normal company zhi right rate for 95.0%, crisis company zhi right rate for 90.0%, and amount to 93.3% that can ameliorate tradition finance and cash rate of flow target zhi right rate. Aboves findings supply bank administer estate fixloan strategy''s for referrence.
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