| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 工業管理研究所 === 96 === Although the forecast sharing has been discussed generally and in depth, most of them are considered the agents in the supply chain risk-neutral. But in the practice, the supplier and buyer may have different attitudes toward risk. For this reason, we incorporate risk preference into the forecast sharing model.
In this model, the supplier sets the entire supply before the selling season and bears all of the supply chain’s inventory risk. We analyze the model by considering the supplier’s attitude toward risk in two scenarios. First, we consider the symmetric forecast information scenario; it means that the supplier considers the forecast information shared by the buyer is creditable. The opposite is asymmetric forecast information scenario, where the supplier does not consider the forecast information provided by the buyer to be credible. Our objective of this paper is not only to analyze the effects of the profits of the supplier and the buyer as well under forecast information sharing on the supplier’s decision in a supply chain with a risk-neutral supplier channel but also a risk-averse one.
We find out that whether being with symmetric forecast information or not, the supplier’s optimal capacity and profits in both scenarios is smaller as the supplier is risk-averse and the larger the asymmetry is the less profit the supplier gets. Furthermore, we study the degree of the asymmetry and the impact of adding or reducing the value of parameters of our models on the supplier’s optimal capacity, the supplier’s profit and the buyer’s profit
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