| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 96 === This study employed present land-use data and SRES climate scenarios to simulate the influence of stream flow and sediment under the future condition of climate change and land-use change by GWLF model in Shihmen Reservoir watershed.
The content of research includes two parts: land-use change and climate change. First, several different land-use sets were applied to the GWLF model to simulate the change of steam flow. Secondly, to estimate the impact of climate change, historical meteoric data and SRES climate scenarios was used to simulate the future short-term, med-term and long-term change of stream flow and sediment.
The result shows the stream flow changed by different land-use. Under the impact of climate change, the rainfall, stream flow and sediment all decrease in the future. The decrease pattern in dry season is more conspicuous then that in the wet season. The rainfall will concentrate in the wet season and the spatial distribution will be more serious unevenness in the future. Therefore, if the stream flow decreases, the supply will decrease, too. The serious drought will happen more frequent in the future.
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